Making Big Decisions Easier

'Sleeping on it' best for complex decisions
February 16, 2006 New Scientist (vol 311, p 1005)

“Complex decisions are best left to your unconscious mind to work out, according to a new study, and over-thinking a problem could lead to expensive mistakes. The research suggests the conscious mind should be trusted only with simple decisions, such as selecting a brand of oven glove. Sleeping on a big decision, such as buying a car or house, is more likely to produce a result with which people remain happy than consciously weighing up the pros and cons of the problem.”

“Thinking hard about a complex decision that rests on multiple factors appears to bamboozle the conscious mind so that people only consider a subset of information, which they weight inappropriately, resulting in an unsatisfactory choice. In contrast, the unconscious mind appears able to ponder over all the information and produce a decision that most people remain satisfied with.”

Ap Dijksterhuis at the University of Amsterdam in the Netherlands says “We found that when the choice was for something simple, such as purchasing oven gloves or shampoo, people made better decisions – ones that they remained happy with – if they consciously deliberated over the information.”

“But once the decision was more complex such as for a house, too much thinking about it led people to make the wrong choice. Whereas, if their conscious mind was fully occupied on solving puzzles, their unconscious could freely consider all the information and they reached better decisions.”

Expectation counts
The unconscious mind appears to need some instruction. “It was only when people were told before the puzzles that they would need to reach a decision that they were able to come up with the right one.” If they were told that none of what they had been shown was important before being given the puzzles, they failed to make satisfactory choices.

“At some point in our evolution, we started to make decisions consciously, and we’re not very good at it. We should learn to let our unconscious handle the complicated things,” Dijksterhuis says.

Dying for Information

This is a scary one: Having too much information can be as dangerous as having too little. In his report Dying for Information, commissioned by Reuters Business Information, based in London, David Lewis, Ph.D. observes that too much information can lead to a paralysis of analysis, making it harder to find the right solutions or make decisions.

An Epidemic of Unhappiness

"Being able to choose has enormous important positive effects on us, but only up to a point. As the number of choices we face increases, the psychological benefits we derive start to level off. At the same time, some of the negative effects of choice...begin to appear, and rather than leveling off, they accelerate...a point is reached at which increase choice brings increased misery rather than increased opportunity. It appears that American society has long since passed that point."

"There's a good reason to believe that the overwhelming choice at least contributes to the epidemic of unhappiness spreading through modern society."
- Barry Schwartz, author of The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less

Sexy Images and Decision-making

Valerie Iancovich, writing for the DiscoveryChannel in Canada says “It's not shocking news that a bikini-clad woman will affect many men's judgment. But now, a recent study suggests that a man with high testosterone levels is more easily-influenced by a scantly-clad lady than guys with lower levels of the hormone.”

“Once the men with high testosterone were exposed to the photos of the women, they were more willing to settle for a poorer deal. As a matter of fact, just touching a bra prior to playing the game seemed to squander the resolve of the testosterone-heavy men.”

So, macho guys, be careful what type of information (photos, graphics) you’re exposed to. It might render your contort your decision-making capacity.

Too Many Choices!

If making product purchases was as simple as choosing supermarket items, we could all cope. But the tyranny of choice extends to large products, as well as services like insurance, retirement options, investments, and frequent flyer programs.

By the time we absorb all the rules and regulations, we heap on more stress to our already stretched-thin composure. I recommend that you judge the merits of any product or service on two criteria:

(1) the intended benefit, and

(2) the ease with which we can understand and enjoy those benefits.